The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of the 2018/19 season looked at the transfers that took place over the summer and identified who the bargains were. What players were purchased below their fair market values? They also identified the players that teams overpaid the most for.
According to the report, the bargain of the summer was Chelsea goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois who moved to Real Madrid for €40m, a €22.6m discount on his real market value of €62.6m. It was not a good summer trainer window for Chelsea, and they turned around and overpaid for Courtois’s replacement Kepa Arrizabalaga by €45m!
From an Inter perspective, the signing of Radja Nainggolan for €40m was the sixth best deal of the summer, as his market value was €52.9m, meaning Inter paid €12.9m less for the midfielder than they should have!
Paying less than a player’s fair market value is becoming more difficulty as the correlation between fees estimated and reported for players transferred for money from big-5 league teams during last transfer window was 75%. That means that 75% of the team, the transfer fee equaled the fair market value of the player.